Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Since September 11, 2001, suicide attacks, using passenger airlines, in US, the Islamic terrorism has been increasing over the time. In the beginning, terrorist attacks world-wide were attributed to Islamic militants, trained in Afghanistan and Pakistan which were considered as their breeding ground. But now several regions in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, like Iraq, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen, have joined the list. Apart from this, lone-wolf attacks in Western Europe, the US and countries like Australia, have been increasing in number.
The present Islamic terrorism is just the trailer of a grisly movie which is yet to come. History is going to repeat again, i.e. like first half of the 20th Century, we will have both large scale killings and collapse of global economy (like 1930s Great Depression). We will not only see large-scale killings in MENA region, but also in Western Europe and countries like India, Australia, Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, and may be in the US also. The number of causalities may even surpass that of World War II.
As discussed in Dr. Kumar’s earlier article (“Chinese yuan replacing US dollar as global currency: A not so distant prospect,” May 1, 2016), once dollar loses the status of global currency, the US economy would node-dive. Due to economic woes, the U.S. will be unable to support its allies in the MENA region either economically or militarily. The U.S. military will suffer the same fate as that of the early-1990s U.S.S.R., when Soviet submarines and aircraft carriers rusted in their dockyards and most ended up in the junkyard. Following a U.S. economic crash and subsequent global economic depression, the intensity of Islamic militancy will rise. Economic depression will make it easier for militants to take over Islamic countries because large-scale unemployment and acute poverty, coupled with corruption in high places, produce militancy.
Because of religious insurgency, counties like Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Libya and Tunisia would fall to Islamic fundamentalists. If this happens, it will initiate a domino effect throughout the Islamic world, especially in the MENA region. The said domino effect will cause one after another of the pro-U.S. and pro-Western governments in Islamic countries to fall into the hands of Islamic militants, especially in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, Kuwait, etc. These radical regimes may also try to re-establish the caliphate. Here is a quote from Dr. Kumar’s 1995 article: “After the fall of oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia to radical Islamic militants, Islamic clerics will try to establish an Islamic empire like the old Ottoman Empire.”
The Islamic militants may rule for some time, say 10-20 years, but they will never be able to turn the clock back in the present digital age, i.e. they cannot impose a 7th century Arabian culture on the 21st century population. Therefore in the end these militants are bound to be over thrown by home grown secular “modern-day Kemal Ataturks,” i.e. when ordinary people fail to find relief from radical Islamic regimes, they will force a change in leadership. These Kemals will inaugurate drastic social and religious changes, and the West will help them financially. After witnessing the dis-integration of once powerful Ottoman Empire at the hands of European powers, Kemal did not see any other option, but to bring drastic changes in just couple of years, leading to the creation of modern secular Turkey which was for last six centuries the center of Islam world-wide, its ruler being the Caliph. It is worth noting that during its heyday (15th to 17th Century), Ottoman cities had paved and lighted roads, drainage system, libraries and universities whereas the Europe was going through “Dark Age.”
Hitler ruled over the entire Europe for nearly 4 years and was responsible for killings of millions. But in the end something good would come out of this crisis as World War II resulted in de-colonialization of Asian and African countries and also Europe is going to unification whereas till WWII, Europeans were fighting among themselves for 1,000s of years. As predicted in Dr. Kumar’s 1995 article (available at his website), based on the analysis of then socio-political and economic situation in Islamic countries, we are witnessing a violent prelude to the modernization of Islam, leading to the unification of human civilization. Islam is the only major religion, still enforced by several countries.
Once Islam loses the patronage of people in power, it will gradually modernize and become more tolerant toward women and non-Muslims. As discussed in Dr. Kumar’s 2008 book The Modernization Islam and the Creation of A Multipolar World Order, if we discard the divinity of Muhammad’s revelations, i.e., assume that his revelations were not divine, the Quran is just a collection of the social practices of 7th century Arabia. After some time, Muslims will start to follow the spiritual aspects of Islam more than its social and militant aspects and Sharia. Religions like Christianity and Hinduism went through this transformation several centuries ago. Now it is time for Islam to do the same.